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| The Cascade GIS Diffusion Model for
Measuring Housing Absorption by Small Area with a Case Study of St. Lucie County, Florida Author: Grant Ian Thrall, Charles F. Sidman, Susan Elshaw Thrall, and Timothy J. Fik Start Page: 401 Abstract: The geographer's
spatial diffusion theory is combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology
to provide a new framework for predicting residential single-family development patterns.
We refer to the model as a multiple-state 'Cascade' GIS diffusion model. Parameter
calibration is done using two-stage least squares. The model predicts new housing built
and purchased by small submarket. Our example submarket is at the census tract level; a
smaller submarket could have been chosen. The contribution to housing forecasting
literature is a structural model that captures the spatial diffusion process at various
geographical scales. Model estimation and forecasts are facilitated using GIS technology
via a high resolution and high precision database using county property tax bills. |
