Author: John L. Goodman, Jr.

Start Page: 445
End Page: 454
Volume: 9
Issue Number: 4
Year: 1994
Publication: Journal of Real Estate Research

Abstract: Several national surveys generate monthly indicators of housing market activity that are released weeks before the "hard" housing statistics (starts, new home sales, existing home sales) for that month. This paper examines whether these surveys of consumers, lenders, and builders can help predict what the current month's housing statistics will be. The conclusion is that these surveys, with the exception of homebuilders' attitudes, add little predictive power to that available from the housing series' own histories and from mortgage interest rates.