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| An Econometric Model of Retail Rents in
the United Kingdom Author: Sotiris Tsolacos Start Page: 519 Abstract: The present study
constructs a model of retail rent determination at the aggregate level in the United
Kingdom. While recognising the influence of very localised factors in the determination of
retail rents, this paper explores the importance of broad economic forces and trends in
the retail property market as determinants of retail rental values. A dynamic
specification based on GDP, consumer expenditure and past values of retail rents in the
U.K. This model provides satisfactory results and it is subsequently used to produce
dynamic forecasts four quarters ahead. The forecasts suggested that U.K. retail rents
would exhibit a slight recovery in the second half of 1994 terminating the downward trend
since the first quarter of 1990. However, a small drop again was forecast for the first
half of 1995. |
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