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Past and Future Sources of Real Estate Returns in Hong Kong

Author: James R. Webb, K.W. Chau, and L.H. Li

Start Page: 251
End Page: 272
Volume: 13
Issue Number: 3
Year: 1997
Publication: Journal of Real Estate Research

Abstract: Historical commercial real estate returns are attributed to three fundamental factors: initial current yield, growth in net operating income, and changes in going-in versus going-out capitalization rates (i.e., pricing movements). Separating returns into these three factors appears to provide more insightful information than the traditionally reported income and appreciation returns. Using this three-factor model, historical real returns and inflation pass-through rates are estimated for each major type of real estate (residential A/B/C, residential D/E, office, retail, industrial).

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