
Volume
27, Number 4, 2005 of the Journal of Real Estate Research
Investor Rationality:
An Analysis of NCREIF Commercial Property Data
Professor Patric H. Hendershott
Centre for Property Research
University of Aberdeen Business School
Edward Wright Building
ABERDEEN
AB24 3QY
Email: phh3939@uslink.net |
Professor Bryan D. MacGregor
Centre for Property Research
University of Aberdeen Business School
Edward Wright Building
ABERDEEN
AB24 3QY
Email: b.d.macgregor@abdn.ac.uk
|
Abstract: National
Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries multiple listing service level cash
flows and panels of capitalization rates for industrial, office and
retail properties over the last two decades are examined in this study.
Real NOI 5-year future growth is shown to be negatively related to
deviations of current real NOI from trend. Given this trend reversion in
real cash flows, investor rationality requires that income multipliers
be low (capitalization rates be high) when real cash flows are above
trend and visa versa. In the panel estimates, the opposite is seen to be
the case. Whether this is due to questionable data or irrational
behavior is uncertain.

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