De-Mystifying the Refi-Share Mystery
 

Abstract:

The refinance shares reported by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), and the National Mortgage News (NMN) have differed by up to 21 percentage points between 1990 and 2005. If a lender’s refinance share varies with loan volume, then weighting by origination volume could explain the observed discrepancies. Based on HMDA data for 2000 (a low refinance year) and 2003 (a refinance boom), lender size was positively related to refinance share, after controlling for institution type, cultural affinity, and location. HMDA provides the best national measure of refinance share, and weighting by lender volume explains most of the difference among the four measures.