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| Is There Momentum in
Office Rental Growth? An Empirical Investigation and Test for Space Market
Efficiency Author: Start Page: 1 Abstract:
This paper examines the momentum effect, or the persistence, in office
rental growth rates. A set of previously unexplored cross-sectional
time-series data from fourteen metropolitan office markets in the United
States is examined. The findings indicated that the momentum effect exists
but the degree of rental growth persistence varies significantly across
markets. The findings also indicate that space market variables are more
important than capital market variables in determining the implicit
equilibrium rents. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecast shows that a
parsimonious model structure behaves better and produces more stable and
realistic rent forecasts than would a more exhaustive structure.
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